I’m going to immediately contradict my criticism in the previous post and note that, despite their flaws, newspapers are driving the anthrax story. At the moment, only papers have the wherewithal - the combination of experience and smarts, contacts within the law enforcement and bioterrorism prevention establishment, and the resources required - to assemble this kind of complicated story, fast. In addition, the form the “story” itself doesn’t benefit from the Internet’s inevitable fragmentation, but from aggregation - putting everything together into a comprehensible form. Not necessarily a single narrative (though I’d like to see that) but a form that still lays it all out.

Scoop-driven network TV news isn’t going to do it. New online outlets such as ProPublica might be able to, but there aren’t many of them. Blogs and social media are at a disadvantage negotiating this kind of secretive, highly specialized milieu.

As newspapers implode and inevitably shed investigative capacity, it’s going to be harder for them to mount this kind of effort. We need to cultivate the kind of talent and narrative forms required to replace that in the new media universe.

It’s both interesting and chilling to watch the story of Bruce Ivins, the FBI’s anthrax suspect who committed suicide last week, unfold bit by bit in the media. The problem is, right now all we have are fragments, at-times contradictory little pieces of a complex narrative involving even-more complex science, Ivins’ personal foibles, the FBI’s own troubled record on the case, and the ways the anthrax attacks were purposely associated with the Iraq war buildup in the media and public consciousnesses.

So we get a fascinating, but fractured and contradictory portrait of Ivins as a dutiful, colorless federal employee, a community-minded volunteer - but also as someone with possibly perverse designs on money or professional recognition and success, who was decidedly unbalanced, whom a psychotherapist called “homicidal” and a “sociopath” and who routinely made death threats. Another wrinkle: the local paper published Ivins’s letters to the editor in which he comes off as a hardline conservative Catholic with political views to match. The central question here is, was Ivins driven to madness by the FBI closing in, or did his psychological problems predate the later stages of the investigation and relate to the deeds in question?

At this stage is we don’t know enough yet to answer that. And in the meantime, everybody’s bidding to control the narrative, and competing agendas are playing out under the surface of the stories. Because of confidentiality commitments, “objectivity” rules and the like, sometimes the media doesn’t advance the story but muddles it. Take this Washington Post story today, headlined “Scientists Question FBI Probe on Anthrax: Ivins Could Not Have Been Attacker, Some Say.”

But the “scientists” of the headline have an obvious interest in Ivins’ supposed innocence. He was their friend and colleague. The reputation of their lab is on the line, and to some extent their own professional and personal judgment. The FBI, meanwhile, thinks Ivins was their man, and has evidence to that effect. But of course, after hounding Steven Hatfill, it’s trying to restore its own reputation.

So the story veers back and forth:

One bioweapons expert familiar with the FBI investigation said Ivins indeed possessed the skills needed to create the dust-fine powder used in the attacks. At the Army lab where he worked, Ivins specialized in making sophisticated preparations of anthrax bacteria spores for use in animal tests, said the expert, who requested anonymity because the investigation remains active.

Ivins’s daily routine included the use of processes and equipment the anthrax terrorist likely used in making his weapons. He also is known to have had ready access to the specific strain of Bacillus anthracis used in the attack — a strain found to match samples found in Ivins’s lab, he said.

“You could make it in a week,” the expert said. “And you could leave USAMRIID with nothing more than a couple of vials. Bear in mind, they weren’t exactly doing body searches of scientists back then.”

Who is this expert? S/he is “familiar with the FBI investigation.” I take that to mean s/he’s with the FBI or worked with it in some capacity, and that this reflects the FBI line. But the paper can’t come out and say that. So is this a credible expert view or an FBI view, or both, or neither?

Then this:

“USAMRIID doesn’t deal with powdered anthrax,” said Richard O. Spertzel, a former biodefense scientist who worked with Ivins at the Army lab. “I don’t think there’s anyone there who would have the foggiest idea how to do it. You would need to have the opportunity, the capability and the motivation, and he didn’t possess any of those.”

Which is it? Obviously, the reporters couldn’t resolve this contradiction before their deadline. I empathize. But I wonder whether this story should have run at all, since it essentially tells us nothing.

The doom and gloom here seems over-the-top, no?

When historians get around to 2008, it’s likely they will say it was the year the Los Angeles Times died. No, I don’t think the paper will fold between now and December. But I do fear the paper will be so diminished, so crippled, that the chance of saving it will have slipped away.

I agree that indiscriminately slashing the LATimes’s staff and budget will, inevitably, degrade its quality. (Though given its traditional bureaucratic loginess, cutting and reorganization are not automatically bad things.)

But like most papers, the LAT is more than a bunch of journalists and a building, it’s an institution and a brand. Those will endure in some form or another. Once Sam Zell has wrung all he can out of them, his successors will want to do something with what’s left. Los Angeles is a large metro area. It has a big industry and a vibrant cultural life for a news organization to tap into. The LAT won’t die - and it will be back in a new form, perhaps a better one. It just won’t be the 1990s-era Times. That is, indeed, dying.

A few more thoughts on the ecocatastrophe in the newspaper business:

If our goal is to reinvent the newspaper, it’s not easy to have successful innovation in an atmosphere that is so fluid and uncertain. There is no way to solve this business model conundrum in the short run. We can only make the best of it. That’s why I found the reactions to the intern’s post dispiriting. Ideally, we still want good journalism in a new package. But: if you degrade your real-world savvy through cuts while betting everything on your Internet savvy, what happens? You get a better package. You get more Internet functionality. But the content suffers. This is bound to be chaotic, and sometimes just plain weird - you have editors who started on typewriters “blowing up” their infrastructure of beats and replacing it with an organization and a set of tools they have no idea how to use. And young staffers who do - but don’t know the community, or how institutions work, or how to leverage their new tools to get information and tell a story.

The problem papers face today is not that they won’t innovate - they will because there’s no alternative - but that as they innovate the repeated retrenchments and gaps in expertise make them collectively dumber. This is a particular problem with medium- and small-sized papers, many of which weren’t too smart to begin with and whose cachet as a mass culture product - the go-to source for community, arts, business, and sports info - is already in eclipse.

How to fix this? It’s a money problem, but also a culture problem. There’s a big divide between those with real-world savvy and those with Internet savvy. Relatively few journalists straddle it. Their numbers are certainly growing - every day, every hour - but these are still two camps, culturally at odds. If they don’t come together (or the handful of 35-year-olds comfortable in both worlds throw up their hands), papers risk a continued slide to irrelevancy.

The trick is how to meld experience and insight with new forms - maintaining some continuity in the craft of journalism, even as the look and sound of that journalism changes profoundly. This is the key, believe it or not, to making a sharp, lively, readable, linkable product. (Look at, for example, TPM, which wouldn’t be what it is without a) sharp reporting and b) Josh Marshall’s equally sharp writing/commentary.)

Jessica DaSilva, an intern at the Tampa Tribune, blogged about her boss’s plan to reorganize the newsroom and lay off a bunch of staffers. Sounds all too routine, but she generated a wave of over 100 comments that capture the restive state of the industry today. In a nutshell, nobody’s happy. Many are attacking her for being insensitive about the layoffs and naive about management. Others are defending her as a standard-bearer for innovation against the forces of the status quo.

This isn’t an edifying conversation. There are no good guys and bad guys here. There aren’t really innovators and curmudgeons either. Almost every round of layoffs/retrenchment occurring in the newspaper business today is born of desperation, and the people making the decisions, as John Zhu notes, are the people who made the all the overcautious bad decisions that brought us to this pass. There is no particular reason to believe they know what they’re doing. The truth of the moment is, when an editor announces the latest round of layoffs and embarks on a plan to reinvent the newsroom, odds are it won’t work. A year will go by, and we’ll see another announcement, maybe with different faces, a different emphasis, but the same desperation.

A massive asteroid has struck, sending shock waves through the media ecosystem. Old species disappear very rapidly; meanwhile various mutations emerge but most of them die off too. Only a few new species will actually thrive, then diversify and take over. We don’t know yet what they look like.

Such an environment is unforgiving. It rewards risk-taking, throwing paint at the wall and seeing if you get art. But rarely - risk-taking is still likely to fail.

Meanwhile, the default attitude of newspaper management is still caution and probity. And if you point a gun to the head of caution and probity and say “innovate or die,” don’t expect wonderful things to happen. Instead, expect buzzwords.

“Hyperlocal” is what market surveys say people want, and it makes a certain amount of sense, being the one thing a local newspaper can provide that the Internet cannot. But who knows how to do this well? Just scaling down the geography of coverage while using the same set of tools as before won’t cut it. News gathering operations have to become more flexible and informal: interact with the community, open up the exchange of information and opinion, and above all forge an interesting conversation. That means being provocative, cultivating original voices so that your site is always saying something new and interesting - not just serving up what happened at the community association meeting last night.

In short: we need more paint thrown at more walls. But there aren’t many true innovators out there yet in positions of authority, and those who are are struggling against an archaic institutional architecture that remains despite all the layoffs: everything from the strictures of AP style to the cluelessness of corporate overlords.

Newspapers are like the Top 40, Alex Massie argues, because they are both mass-culture products in a time when mass culture no longer exists. We all have our own interests, best satisfied elsewhere:

The problem newspapers have (or, rather, one of the problems they face) these days is that the nature of the beast has traditionally encouraged them to have as broad an appeal as possible*. Hence a single product wants to attract people who love crossword puzzles and those with a passion for gardening; political junkies and corporate executives; cricket fans and teachers…

But as we all know by know, the rise of cheap distribution and the niche opportunities afforded by the internet, threaten all that.

This helps explain why so many newspapers are so awful, and becoming more so as they respond to the collapse of their business model and the rising competition for people’s attention. Like any mass-market product, the traditional newspaper is inherently bland. But with enough intelligence behind it, that blandness could sparkle; it was an expression of shared taste, an engine of bourgeois social consensus. Leveraging this authority, the best papers could employ journalism to nudge government and society in new directions.

But the line between blandness and mediocrity is exceedingly fine. It didn’t take much to push many papers over it.

The Record, a newspaper in northern New Jersey, is conducting a six-month investigation into possible “liberal bias” in its pages:

We were asking readers and non-readers about the jobs they expected our newspaper to do for them. “Tell me the truth” emerged as the top job, but then several added that they wanted it objectively and not from a reporter’s personal angle. Fair enough.

Now this led to people saying they thought The Record was politically liberal, according to our market research manager. Some even thought our Opinion section was “sneaking over” to the news section, both of which I personally oversee. Yikes. We are against that sort of opinion creep, and my fellow editors and I work at keeping the two separate, just as we do to keep news and advertising separate.

Still, some of those folks offered views such as these: “It’s prejudiced, politically [liberal].” … “Editorial could be less biased – slant is always going to be for Democrats.” … “Biased in certain ways – The Record is more liberal – does not present both sides of a story.”

I am familiar with The Record by its (good) reputation only, but this is, of course, faintly ridiculous, and reveals something about the crisis in American newspapers today. The editor of a daily newspaper shouldn’t have to investigate himself. For six months. This Freudian-analytical approach to journalism won’t work.

This isn’t complicated. An editor should be aware of bias in news coverage and be correcting it both daily and in overall strategy, the choices in who covers what and how they do it. If the charge of bias is wrong, unfair, or misguided, the editor should be out there knocking it down. I have no idea if The Record is New Jersey’s answer to Granma, but what’s going on here is that market research (always a poor guide for journalists if taken too literally) is revealing not creeping liberalism in the news pages, but a more global disconnect between the newspaper and its readers. This about the breakdown of a consensus in society over the past generation, not with whether running a photo of an anti-Bush protest is “bias” or straight news.

Consider what we’ve seen just in the past eight years: A massive terror attack in The Record’s backyard. Aggressive attempts by government officials to manipulate the media and public opinion to back a disastrous war. The near-destruction of an American city, abetted by massive government failure. The continued political/demographic sorting of society into self-selected “red” and “blue” socioeconomic groups. And, in the media world, the proliferation of opinion on the Internet and cable news.

When readers say “tell me the truth,” they want the paper to make sense of all of this. Rush Limbaugh at least has an explanation. But newspapers and other traditional media outlets haven’t done a great job explaining/interpreting these events - after all, they’re slow-moving institutions unaccustomed to stuff blowing up so often, or to high officials propagandizing them on matters of life and death, or to being whipsawed by bloggers on the left and right. And of course, right now nobody can claim to know where all this is going.

The success of a newspaper once depended not just on a steady stream of advertising revenue, but on a certain, general idea shared between readers and editors about what was fair, what was out of bounds, what was biased, what not. After all, the newspaper was a principal source of information about the world. That agreement has been dead for some time. In terms of national news, that train went off the rails quite a while back. Locally, you’d think it wouldn’t be such a problem - local issues and politics are of course more pragmatic, less ideological. But any newspaper is judged on the whole package, and far more of those judgments will be harsh today than they were a generation ago.

The problem is, The Record’s market research notwithstanding, I doubt very much that there is genuine agreement among readers about what’s wrong with the paper. “Liberal bias” is sort of a catch-all phrase, code for presenting unpleasant stuff readers don’t like (which is inevitable). And it can also mean readers sense the whole form of the newspaper, with its traditional stylistic tics, its faux-objectivity, its stilted writing, just isn’t doing a good job of reflecting the reality of the world around them.

The problems we face today, such as global warming or tightening energy supplies, don’t fit well into the “liberal vs. conservative” culture-war frame. And a newspaper should have better things to do than spend six months investigating the political shadings in each paragraph of school board coverage.

There are two reasons why I left the newspaper business and, at the moment anyway, have no intention of going back. The first was that many of the people controlling the business today do not care all that much about journalism. The second was that, among those who do care, hardly any have a clue about what has hit them, or what to do about it.

I don’t have any magical suggestions, but it’s clear the future of most newspapers is paperless, free, and heavily local in character. But these are very broad descriptions; there is still an enormous range of possible outcomes, good and bad, even with those preconditions.

For instance, the “hyperlocal” idea is useful but inadequate if taken literally, given that we’re in an era when categories of local and global are increasingly blurred. Virtual communities know no geographical boundaries. Both economic globalization and climate change have serious local and global effects, and political/policy fixes will increasingly have to straddle those categories. The more “hyper” the local in newspaper coverage, and the more it becomes just a buzzword, driven by business models that don’t incorporate an understanding of the community or the world, the more blinkered and navel-gazing the local newspaper will become. Not good, given where they’re starting from.

Lee Abrams is Tribune’s new innovation director, coming from XM Radio and a long, highly successful career as a radio executive, and he’s made a practice of writing long, stream-of-consciousness memos about what’s wrong with newspapers. His latest is up on Romenesko. (Speaking of, why did Tribune - apparently - make Abrams abandon his blog? Seems like exactly the kind of reflexive, decidedly non-innovative corporate diktat that is killing the business.) It’s great to see an outsider and proven innovator looking critically at the business. But I’m not loving what I’m reading:

*Changes are made but they are SO subtle that no-one outside of the building notices.

*Writers and Editors content is undermined by a generally dated and tired look, that is tweaked but not noticeably evolved.

*Are rife with assumptions. That people will find great stories…that the paper will get credit for breaking stories…that the writers are known commodities…that the paper is the center of the local news universe. Well—not necessarily. Historically yes, but in 2008, not a given. Gotta REALIZE WAR HAS BEEN DECLARED by the Google’s and Fox’s…and FIGHT BACK…RECLAIM YOUR TURF! Ain’t gonna happen by osmosis.

*Are not very aggressive. At least by today’s standards. If a radio station had the circulation declines facing newspapers, all hell would break loose and you’d see the big guns pulled out. I don’t see that in newspapers. When AOL started declining, they blew up the company. My point is that we gotta fight back….fight back to reclaim. It’ll never be 1938 again, but there’s no reason newspapers can’t aggressively get in the 2008 competitive groove and grow again.

Well, yeah. But all of this has been obvious for years. If Tribune needs to spend big bucks to hire a proven innovator to come in and write memos telling its employees what any reader can see, things are worse than even I imagined. And while a little old-fashioned fire in the belly can’t hurt, it’s not a solution. Abrams mentions Fox and Google as the competitors, the enemy newspapers must gird themselves to battle. But if you’re at at a medium-sized, Tribune-owned paper, are Fox and Google really your chief competitors? How are newspaper execs, editors and reporters supposed to get lathered up for a fight when they don’t even know who or what their rivals are anymore? (Blogs? XM Radio? iPods? Jon Stewart?)

Again, no brilliant solutions here. But newspapers do need to blow things up. The current model, with its layers of editors, copy editors, classified ad reps and pillar-of-the-community caution, has to go. Papers need to experiment, try new formats, new models. There’s the open-source idea advanced by newassignment.net, or by local startups such as Paul Bass’s New Haven Independent. That’s one way to inject both new perspectives and some buzz into the business at the same time. But papers also have to protect and nourish two things they already have - reporting and the newspaper “brand.” Original voices and journalistic credibility are pretty much all papers have left - and they’re good both for making money and for the healthy functioning of society.