I have a Guardian piece up discounting the possibility of war crimes trials for Bush & Co. in the United States. I do think, though, that a Pinochet scenario – a torture indictment by a zealous foreign prosecutor – is probable at some point from 2009 on for Bush, Cheney, or Rumsfeld, most likely the latter.
There is just too much to be gained, in terms of international opinion, political stock, and, well, justice itself, for some enterprising European civil servant not to go after those big, big fish. You might think that outrage in the United States, and the various forms of diplomatic pressure that would follow on that, would render this impossible. But once Bush leaves the White House, he will lose the symbolic cloak of office that makes him a symbol of America and still buys him a measure of respect and deference. No one of consequence will rise to his defense. Pinochet at least had Margaret Thatcher – who will speak for Bush? Most of the country will be so relieved to see Bush go they will quickly forget he ever existed, and won’t care a whit if he or his associates are indicted in absentia abroad somewhere.
